Kherson's recapture and its security aftermath

What had changed on the southern front by 14 November 2022, and what did it mean for security in Ukraine and beyond? In the preceding days, Russian forces had announced a retreat from the city of Kherson, the western bank of the Dnieper and the western part of Kherson Oblast, a withdrawal announced on 9 November.

A fast sequence on the ground

The counteroffensive in the south had been launched by Ukraine on 29 August 2022, with the aim of expelling Russian forces from Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts. By 10 November, the Ukrainian military said it had recaptured Snihurivka, the last city in Mykolaiv Oblast that Russia still controlled. Ukrainian troops also retook the village of Kyselivka, advancing to within nine miles of the centre of Kherson, and explosions were reported near the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant.

On 11 November, Ukrainian troops entered Kherson, ending an eight-month occupation. It was the only Ukrainian regional capital Russia had captured during the invasion. As they pulled back from the west of the Dnieper, Russian forces destroyed the Antonivka Road Bridge.

Another development from 9 November: Russian officials said Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Kherson military–civilian administration, had died in a car crash while travelling to Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree posthumously awarding him the Order of Courage.

Western support continues

On 10 November, the Pentagon announced its latest $400 million weapons package for Ukraine. It included four AN/TWQ-1 Avenger surface-to-air missile systems, Stinger missiles, 400 grenade launchers, 100 humvees, and artillery rounds and small arms ammunition. The package arrived as Ukrainian forces were advancing in the south, and it showed that US military support was continuing.

Diplomatic and wider effects

On 11 November, the Russian Foreign Ministry banned 200 US citizens from entering Russia. They included White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and three siblings of President Joe Biden.

The war's reach beyond the battlefield was also visible in economic figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization forecast on 11 November that global spending on food imports would rise 10 percent from the previous year by the end of 2022, to an all-time high of US$1.94 trillion, citing currency depreciations and the war in Ukraine. The bulk of the increase would come from high-income countries, and import volumes were also expected to rise.

On 14 November itself, the United Kingdom announced it was withdrawing its troops from Mali, citing political instability and the controversial relationship between the military junta led by Assimi Goïta and Russia's Wagner Group. That placed Russia's links with armed actors in the security calculations of a distant theatre.

Assessment

By 14 November 2022, the picture was one of Russian retreat from the west bank of the Dnieper, with the river now forming the line between the sides in that area. The destroyed Antonivka bridge was a sign of the physical barrier left behind. Continued Western weapons deliveries, Russian counter-measures against US officials and the food import forecast show how the war's effects were spreading well beyond the front.