What Kyiv feared in mid-October 2022

What was the picture on 16 October 2022, as Ukraine's allies and its leadership weighed the next phase of the war? The reports from the days before that date point to two developments: a warning about Belarus and a pledge of air defence help.

On 11 October 2022, thousands of Russian troops were reported to be entering Belarus by the "trainload". The same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned G7 nations that Russia was planning another offensive against Kyiv, with direct Belarusian involvement. The troop movements came a day after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine of planning to launch an attack on his country.

On 12 October 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would send radar and air defence systems to Ukraine "in the coming weeks".

Taken together, the reports from 11 and 12 October 2022 show a Ukrainian leadership warning of a northern threat while foreign partners moved to supply air defence equipment.