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What did Kyiv warn in mid-October 2022?
Summary
A look back at the diplomatic and military signals in the days leading up to 14 October 2022, from Belarus to the Crimean Bridge.
What was the picture on 14 October 2022, as the war's latest shocks reverberated through European capitals? The days before it had brought three connected developments, each pointing to a widening confrontation.
Accusations over the Crimean Bridge
On 9 October 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin formally accused Ukraine, and specifically the Security Service of Ukraine, of being behind the explosion on the Crimean Bridge. The blast killed three people and partially destroyed part of the structure. Putin called it an act of terrorism.
Troops into Belarus
By 11 October 2022, thousands of Russian troops were entering Belarus by the trainload, as reported at the time. The movements came a day after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine of planning to attack his country. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned G7 nations that Russia was planning another offensive against Kyiv, with direct Belarusian involvement.
Western air defence
On 12 October 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would send radar and air defence systems to Ukraine in the coming weeks.
Taken together, the reports from those days show a Ukrainian leadership warning of a northern threat, Moscow assigning blame for the bridge attack to Ukrainian security services, and a Western partner promising air defence equipment.
