What the Paris summit promised on Donbas

What did the Paris talks actually deliver, and what did they leave open? On 12 December 2019, three days after the summit, the question still hung over the Normandy Format, the grouping of Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France.

The meeting on 9 December 2019 brought together Volodymyr Zelensky, Vladimir Putin, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel. It was the first time Putin and Zelensky had met. It was also the first four-way leaders' meeting of the format since 2016.

A ceasefire pledge

Following a breakthrough in the talks, Russia and Ukraine agreed to implement a ceasefire in the Donbass by the end of 2019. That gave the summit a concrete, time-bound commitment, with under three weeks left on the calendar when it was made.

The format behind the talks

The Normandy Format had first met informally in 2014, during the 70th anniversary of the D-Day celebrations in Normandy, France. It later played a substantial role in mediating the Minsk agreements between 2014 and 2015. The Paris meeting therefore revived a channel that had already been used for peace efforts, after a gap in leaders' meetings since 2016.

The format continued to exist for years afterwards. Further meetings in 2022 failed to deescalate rising tensions before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. That was a later development and could not have been known in December 2019.

What mattered

The significance of 9 December 2019 lay in two things: the personal meeting of the Russian and Ukrainian presidents for the first time, and the agreement on a ceasefire deadline. Whether the pledge would be implemented was the test that followed.