What did Iran admit about Flight 752?

What had Iran actually done to the Ukraine International Airlines plane that crashed near Tehran, and when did it say so? By 15 January 2020, the answer had been public for four days, after a short but fast-moving sequence of denials, foreign allegations and finally an admission.

The flight

Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 was a scheduled service from Tehran to Kyiv. On 8 January 2020, the Boeing 737-800 was shot down by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps shortly after takeoff, and all 176 people on board were killed.

From denial to admission

On 9 January 2020, officials from the United States, Canada, Britain and Iraq said they believed an Iranian anti-aircraft missile had probably brought the plane down by accident. Iran said the cause was mechanical failure. The same day, The New York Times released a verified video, obtained from an Iranian citizen, that showed the plane being struck by what appeared to be a surface-to-air missile.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at a news conference that it was too early to draw definitive conclusions that the downing was an act of war. He also condemned Iran's attack on US bases in Iraq.

On 10 January 2020, after Trudeau suggested an Iranian missile was responsible, Iranian authorities rejected the theory. The country's civil aviation chief said he was certain no missile had hit the plane and still pointed to mechanical failure.

The position changed on 11 January 2020. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps admitted it had mistakenly shot down the aircraft as it took off from Tehran. Iran's president also officially acknowledged that the country's armed forces had erroneously downed the plane with a missile.

Vigils turn into protests

The admission was followed by public anger. Vigils held in Iran for the victims subsequently turned into protests. According to videos posted on Twitter, hundreds of demonstrators in Tehran called for the resignation of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A diplomatic incident

The unrest also touched Britain's diplomatic presence. On 11 January 2020, the British ambassador to Iran, Robert Macaire, was arrested during the protests. The BBC reported that he had attended a vigil and then had his hair cut. Iran's Tasnim News Agency said he was held on suspicion of organising, provoking and directing radical actions. British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said the arrest was a flagrant violation of international law. Macaire was released more than an hour later.

What the sequence showed

In the space of four days, from 8 to 11 January 2020, the story moved from a crash attributed to a technical fault, to allegations by Western and Iraqi officials, to video evidence, and then to a formal Iranian acknowledgement. By 15 January 2020, the question was no longer what had brought the flight down, but how the aftermath would unfold on the streets of Tehran and in Iran's relations with the countries that lost citizens.