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Turkey's mediation offer and Belarus border tension
Summary
A look back at two security developments from late November 2021, as Ankara offered to mediate and Minsk's border crisis continued.
What was shaping the security picture around Ukraine and its neighbours on 1 December 2021? Two developments from the days just before that date set the tone: a Turkish offer to mediate and a continuing migrant crisis on the Belarus–Poland frontier.
Turkey offers to mediate
On 29 November 2021, Turkey offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia over the conflict between the two countries. The offer was reported as part of the Russo-Ukrainian War, and it was on the table as December began.
Lukashenko at the border
On 26 November 2021, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made his first public appearance at the Belarus–Poland border since the migrant crisis began. He gave a speech to migrants and told them they were free either to return home or to head west. As reported at the time, he said he would not detain, choke or beat those who wished to go west, and urged them to go through.
The crisis had its roots in August 2021, when the Belarusian government began sponsoring an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. Belarus denied involvement, but the European Union and independent observers viewed the movement as hybrid warfare, undertaken after relations with the EU deteriorated following the 2020 presidential election and the protests of 2020–2021.
What followed
Between August and December 2021, tens of thousands of unauthorised crossing attempts were recorded, peaking in October. Later, at least 20 migrants died over the following winter because of harsh weather and abuse from border authorities. Crossing attempts fell sharply the following year, though they never returned to pre-crisis levels.
