Talks, alerts and ceasefire offers on 27 February 2022

What did diplomacy look like on 27 February 2022, the fourth day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine? It looked contradictory: talk of negotiations, an order raising the alert level of Russia's nuclear forces, and a growing list of outside actors offering to mediate or applying pressure.

A dispute over where to talk

Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on 27 February that a Russian delegation had arrived in Gomel, Belarus, for talks aimed at ending the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected Belarus as a venue, since Belarus was not a neutral party in the conflict. By the end of the day, Ukraine and Russia had agreed to hold negotiations the following day, 28 February, on the Belarus–Ukraine border near the Pripyat river. The Ukrainian delegation was to travel via Poland for safety reasons.

The sequence followed earlier signals. On 25 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin had told Chinese President Xi Jinping that Russia was willing to hold talks with Ukraine. On 26 February, Putin ordered an expansion of the offensive after declaring peace talks dead. The agreement on a border venue therefore came after a rapid shift in Moscow's stated position, and after Kyiv had refused the first location named.

The nuclear alert

On 27 February, Putin ordered Russia's nuclear forces placed on high alert. He said he was responding to what he considered aggressive statements by NATO members. The order came on the same day that the two sides settled on a place for negotiations.

The day before, French President Emmanuel Macron had spoken by phone with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and called on him to demand the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine. During that call, Lukashenko described reports of Belarus potentially having nuclear weapons as fake news.

Mediators and pressure

Several governments positioned themselves as intermediaries. Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett offered to mediate a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had said on 26 February that Turkey was working for an immediate ceasefire.

Turkey also took a concrete step on 27 February. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu triggered the wartime clause of the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits, limiting movements of military vessels whose bases are not on the Black Sea coast.

Elsewhere, support for Ukraine took more direct forms. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen allowed volunteers to join Ukrainian soldiers in fighting against Russia. The International Judo Federation suspended Putin's titles as honorary president and ambassador of the federation, citing the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Pressure at home and in Kyiv

Inside Russia, around 3,000 anti-war protesters had been detained by 26 February, since the invasion was launched. In Ukraine, Zelenskyy had posted a video of himself in Kyiv on 26 February amid rumours that he had left the country.

What the day showed

The picture on 27 February 2022 was of parallel tracks. A negotiating channel was agreed, but only after Ukraine objected to the first venue. Russia's leadership raised the readiness of its nuclear forces while accepting talks. Third countries offered mediation, restricted naval movements or allowed volunteers, and a sports body cut ties with Putin. Whether the next day's meeting would change the course of the war remained an open question at the time.