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Kyiv's tense week before December 2021
Summary
A look back at the late-November signals from Kyiv, Ankara and the Belarusian border as 1 December 2021 approached.
What did Ukraine's neighbourhood look like on 1 December 2021? In the days before it, three separate developments pointed to a region on edge, even as they came from different places.
On 26 November 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of plotting a coup against him. He said the tycoon Rinat Akhmetov was being enlisted to help plan it, and that Ukraine was prepared for any scenario as tensions rose. The claim was serious, and it landed as the two countries were already at odds over the conflict between them.
Three days later, on 29 November 2021, Turkey offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia. The offer showed that outside states were looking for a way to ease the confrontation, though it came with no sign in this period that either side had accepted.
The Belarusian border
On 26 November 2021, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko appeared at the Belarus–Poland border for the first time since the migrant crisis began. He told migrants they were free to return home or head west, and said they would not be detained, choked or beaten if they chose to go through.
The crisis had begun in August 2021, when Belarus started sponsoring an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. Belarus denied involvement. The European Union and independent observers saw it as hybrid warfare, a response to worsening relations after the 2020 presidential election and the protests that followed. Crossing attempts peaked in October 2021. Later, at least 20 migrants died over the winter because of harsh weather and abuse from border authorities.
What the week suggested
Placed side by side, these developments show security concerns running along Ukraine's northern and eastern surroundings at once: a public accusation of a coup plot in Kyiv, a mediation offer from Turkey, and a border standoff involving Belarus, a neighbour of Ukraine. None of them was a resolution. Each was a sign of pressure and of diplomacy trying to keep pace.
A domestic tragedy also marked the period. On 27 November 2021, a blast, preliminarily attributed to household gas, wrecked two flats in a five-storey residential building in Nova Odesa, in the Mykolaiv region. Three people died and three were injured.
The last days of November 2021 thus combined political alarm, tentative mediation and ordinary loss, a mix that framed 1 December 2021 for readers following Ukraine.
