Home › Security › What Turkey's mediation offer and Belarus border showed
What Turkey's mediation offer and Belarus border showed
Summary
A look back at two regional security developments reported in the days before 2 December 2021.
What was happening on Ukraine's wider security horizon on 2 December 2021? Two developments from the preceding days framed the picture: an offer of mediation over the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and a migrant crisis on the Belarus–Poland border.
On 29 November 2021, Turkey offered to mediate between Ukraine and Russia over the conflict between the two countries. The offer placed a third party on the diplomatic stage, though no outcome from it was reported by that date.
The Belarus border
On 26 November 2021, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko made his first public appearance at the Belarus–Poland border since the migrant crisis began. He addressed migrants there and told them they were free either to return home or to head west. He said Belarus would not detain, choke or beat them, and urged them to go through.
The crisis had begun in August 2021, when the Belarusian government started sponsoring an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, to the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. Belarus denied involvement. The European Union and independent observers viewed the influx as hybrid warfare, undertaken after relations with the EU deteriorated following the 2020 presidential election and the 2020–2021 protests.
What came next
Between August and December 2021, tens of thousands of unauthorised crossing attempts were recorded, peaking in October. Later, at least 20 migrants died over the following winter from harsh weather and abuse by border authorities. Crossing attempts fell sharply the following year but never returned to pre-crisis levels, and numbers began rising again in spring 2024, though they stayed well below the 2021 peak.
Taken together, the two items show security concerns for Ukraine and its neighbours running along separate tracks: a diplomatic offer over the conflict with Russia, and a border dispute pressing on the European Union's eastern frontier.
