Home › Politics › Belarus and the war: what Minsk signalled
Belarus and the war: what Minsk signalled
Summary
Statements from Minsk and Kyiv in late March 2022 addressed whether Belarusian forces would join the fighting.
Would Belarus send its own troops into the war? On 25 March 2022, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko reaffirmed that his country had no plans to fight in Ukraine. He added a condition: Belarus could join the war if aggression were launched against it.
Two messages from Minsk
The statement carried reassurance and a warning at once. The first part repeated a position Belarus had already stated. The second part set out a circumstance in which Belarus might enter the conflict.
Kyiv's reading
On 24 March 2022, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said that Belarusian troops were not willing to fight alongside Russia in Ukraine. Taken together with Lukashenko's remarks the following day, the two statements gave different accounts of Belarus's role: one from Kyiv about the readiness of Belarusian soldiers, the other from the Belarusian president about the intentions of his government.
Pressure on Lukashenko
Belarus also faced penalties abroad. On 24 March 2022, Australia imposed sanctions on Lukashenko and his family for supporting the Russian invasion. The same measures covered 22 people described as Russian propagandists and disinformation operatives, including senior editors at Russia Today, the Strategic Culture Foundation, InfoRos and NewsFront.
Talks and money
Elsewhere on 24 March 2022, Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, said progress had been made in the talks between Russia and Ukraine. He expressed cautious optimism that a ceasefire could be reached to end the war. A day earlier, on 23 March 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin had demanded that countries he deemed unfriendly pay for natural gas deliveries in rubles.
As of 25 March 2022, then, the picture was mixed: Belarus publicly denied plans to fight while holding open a conditional path to joining, Kyiv reported reluctance among Belarusian troops, and Ukrainian officials spoke of progress in negotiations.
