Talks, a no-fly plea and Kyiv's diplomacy

What did diplomacy look like on day 18 of the Russian invasion? On 13 March 2022, it ran on two tracks at once: cautious statements about negotiations, and an urgent appeal from Kyiv for the West to close Ukraine's skies.

A plea over NATO's border

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy again called for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. He said it was only a matter of time before Russian rockets fell on NATO territory. The warning was aimed at the alliance's members, and it framed the request as a matter of their own security as well as Ukraine's.

The request did not find a receptive audience. As later described, NATO rejected Ukrainian requests for a no-fly zone in March 2022. Of the thirty members, only the three Baltic states voiced support for it. That outcome was not known on 13 March, but it explains why the appeal was repeated.

Signals of progress

The negotiating track looked more hopeful. Ukrainian negotiator and presidential adviser Mykhailo Podoliyak and Russian delegate Leonid Slutsky both said there were signs of progress in the peace talks. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Russia was willing to engage in negotiations aimed at a ceasefire.

Zelenskyy set out what he wanted from the process. The purpose of the talks between the two delegations, he said, was to secure direct talks between himself and Russian President Vladimir Putin. That aim had been voiced before the weekend. On 11 March, Igor Zhovkva, deputy head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said Zelenskyy was ready to talk to Putin whenever Putin was ready. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said the same day that Putin was open to a meeting.

Putin had also spoken of progress. In a meeting with Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko on 11 March, he described "positive shifts" in talks with Ukraine. Markets noticed: stock prices rose in the United States and elsewhere after his remarks, and the Dow gained 300 points.

On 12 March, Zelenskyy had suggested that ceasefire negotiations be held in Jerusalem, adding that Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett could have a positive impact on them.

Pressure from sanctions

The diplomacy took place against continuing economic pressure. On 11 March, U.S. president Joe Biden announced that he would revoke Russia's most favoured nation trade status in coordination with the European Union and the Group of Seven. The U.S. would also ban imports of Russian seafood, alcohol and diamonds, forbid new American investment in Russia, and criminalise the export of U.S. banknotes to Russia.

Costs on the ground

The day also brought reminders of the war's reach. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Russian forces had abducted Yevhen Matviyev, the mayor of Dniprorudne. Separately, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko announced that power had been restored to the former power plant in Chernobyl.

What the day showed

Taken together, the reports from 13 March 2022 show a Ukrainian leadership pursuing three aims at once: a possible meeting with Putin, continued Western economic pressure on Moscow, and a no-fly zone that allies were reluctant to grant. Positive words from both delegations and from Washington suggested the talks were moving, but the same day's reports of an abducted mayor and of Zelenskyy's warning about rockets falling on NATO territory showed how far the war remained from a ceasefire.