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Could Kyiv trade NATO hopes for a ceasefire?
Summary
A look back at 22 March 2022, when Ukraine's refusal to surrender Mariupol sat beside signals of possible diplomatic movement.
Could Ukraine give up its aim of joining NATO in return for a ceasefire, even while refusing to yield a besieged city? That was the tension in the reports reaching international readers around 22 March 2022, drawn from statements made on 20 and 21 March.
Two messages at once
On 21 March, Ukraine rejected a Russian ultimatum to surrender control of Mariupol. Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said the Russian side had already been informed of the refusal. The siege of the city continued.
The same day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would consider dropping Ukraine's request to join NATO in exchange for a ceasefire. Taken together, the two statements showed a Kyiv unwilling to concede territory under ultimatum, yet open to discussing one of its major strategic aims if that stopped the fighting.
Signals of diplomacy
On 20 March, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu said Russia and Ukraine were nearing agreement on certain peace issues. The same day, the Daily Express reported that a BBC correspondent said Russian President Vladimir Putin had "finally agreed" to meet Zelenskyy. That was a secondhand account, and the reports did not describe any arrangements for a meeting.
Allies and energy
Western preparations were under way as well. According to White House press secretary Jen Psaki, US President Joe Biden was due to travel to Warsaw on 25 March, after meetings in Brussels with NATO allies, G7 leaders and European Union leaders.
On the economic side, Bulgaria said on 20 March that it would end gas imports from Russia's Gazprom when its 10-year contract expired at the end of 2022. Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov said Bulgaria would also seek more gas from Azerbaijan, a sign of a move away from Russian energy.
What the day showed
The reports from these days did not describe a settlement. They described a Ukrainian position that combined firmness on Mariupol with flexibility on NATO, while mediators spoke of progress and allied governments prepared a coordinated meeting schedule. How far any of this would carry was not yet clear on 22 March 2022.
