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What did Minsk and Washington signal before 4 July 2022?
Summary
Two reports from the days before 4 July 2022 pointed to a shifting security picture along Ukraine's western and northern borders.
What was being said about Ukraine's neighbours in the days leading up to 4 July 2022? Two developments stood out, one from Belarus and one from Poland.
On 2 July 2022, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed that his country had intercepted Ukrainian missiles directed at Belarus three days earlier. He added that Belarus does not want war with Ukraine. The claim was his own, and it was made as the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine continued.
At the NATO summit in Madrid, on 29 June 2022, US President Joe Biden announced a new permanent American military base in Poland. It would be the headquarters of the 5th Army, which had maintained a forward command post in Poznań since the previous year. Poland's government had long requested such a base.
Two different messages
The two reports differ in kind. One was a claim from Minsk about missiles, paired with a statement of peaceful intent. The other was a concrete decision on a permanent US presence in a neighbouring NATO member, one that Warsaw had sought for some time.
Taken together, they show how the war was drawing in the states around Ukraine, in rhetoric on one side and in military planning on the other.
