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What the last days of June 2022 signalled
Summary
A retrospective on a week of pledges, a missile strike on a crowded mall and a shift in NATO's posture towards Poland.
What did the allies promise Ukraine in the days leading up to 30 June 2022, and what was happening on the ground as they did so? The answer lies in a sequence of events between 26 and 29 June that mixed diplomacy with violence.
On 26 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin began a trip to Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, his first foreign travel since the invasion of Ukraine. The following day, leaders at the G7 summit in Germany issued a statement pledging more financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine. The statement followed a video message in which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on allies for more heavy weapons.
A strike on a crowded mall
Also on 27 June, two missiles hit a crowded shopping mall in Kremenchuk. As reported at the time, at least 13 people were killed and at least 50 injured. Zelenskyy said more than a thousand people were inside when the missiles struck. Later accounts put the toll higher, at least 20 dead and at least 59 injured, and said the missiles were Kh-22 cruise missiles that hit the Kredmash road machinery plant and the adjacent Amstor mall. Russian media and officials gave conflicting stories about the attack.
Poland and NATO
On 29 June, at the NATO summit in Madrid, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that a new permanent U.S. military base would be established in Poland. It would be the headquarters of the 5th Army, which had kept a forward command post in Poznań since the previous year. Poland's government had long requested such a base.
Reading the sequence
Taken together, the events show two tracks running side by side. Western governments were widening their pledges of support and, in Poland's case, committing to a lasting military presence. At the same time, the Kremenchuk strike showed civilians in a city far from the front line exposed to missile attack, and Zelenskyy's appeal for heavy weapons remained central to Kyiv's message to its partners.
By 30 June 2022, the G7 commitments and the announced base in Poland were on the public record, as was the Kremenchuk toll.
