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Putin's warning over Sweden and Finland, 16 May 2022
Summary
A look back at the Kremlin's reaction to NATO's northern enlargement and the diplomatic contacts that preceded it.
What did Moscow say as Sweden and Finland moved towards NATO? On 16 May 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would react to the "expansion of military infrastructure" by NATO in the two countries. He said problems were being created for no reason at all, and added that Russia would react accordingly.
The remark was a response to the enlargement debate, and it was filed under NATO's expansion and Sweden–NATO relations. Putin did not, in the reported words, specify what form a Russian reaction would take. Analysis should stay with what he actually said: a warning aimed at military infrastructure, not at membership as such.
A channel between defence chiefs
The warning came days after a notable contact. On 13 May 2022, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. It was the first meeting between the two since the start of the invasion. The talks showed that a line between Washington and Moscow at defence-minister level existed even as rhetoric over NATO sharpened.
Pressure beyond the battlefield
The wider isolation of Russia was also visible in sport. On 12 May 2022, it was reported that tennis players from Russia and Belarus would be allowed to compete at the upcoming French Open as neutral athletes. Those who spoke in support of Putin would face sanctions.
Taken together, the reports from these days show three tracks running at once: direct military-to-military contact, a Kremlin warning over NATO's northern flank, and continued restrictions on Russian and Belarusian participation in international events.
