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Russia's warnings to Finland and Sweden on NATO
Summary
A look back at the Russian threats and the electricity cut-off that accompanied Nordic moves towards NATO membership in mid-May 2022.
What did Moscow say as Finland and Sweden edged towards NATO? On 16 May 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia would react to what he called the "expansion of military infrastructure" by the alliance in Sweden and Finland. He said problems were being created for no reason at all, and that Russia would react accordingly.
A sequence of signals
The warning came at the end of a few days of pressure aimed at Finland. On 12 May 2022, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs threatened retaliatory steps if the country joined NATO, including measures of a "military-technical" nature. The ministry did not, in the reports from that day, spell out what those measures would be.
On 13 May 2022, RAO Nordic, a subsidiary of the Russian energy company Inter RAO, announced it would suspend electricity deliveries to Finland. The company said it had not been paid for earlier deliveries. As reported at the time, the suspension came while Russia was threatening retaliation over a possible Finnish NATO bid.
What the pattern showed
Taken together, the three statements show Moscow combining diplomatic warnings, an unspecific military threat and a commercial step within a span of five days. The company gave non-payment as its reason for the power cut, while the timing coincided with the political warnings. Putin's remarks on 16 May extended the message beyond Finland to Sweden, treating the two countries as a single question for NATO enlargement.
What the statements left open was the substance of any response. Neither the foreign ministry nor Putin named specific actions, and the reports from those days gave no detail on how Russia would react to any new NATO infrastructure in the two countries.
A separate decision the same week
On 12 May 2022, a different kind of Russia-related decision was reported in sport: tennis players from Russia and Belarus would be allowed to compete at the French Open as neutral athletes, though players who spoke in support of Putin would face sanctions.
