Was Crimea becoming a front line by 18 August 2022?

Was the war moving beyond the front lines on 18 August 2022? Reports from that day, and the days just before it, pointed that way: blasts at military sites in Crimea and in Russia's Belgorod Oblast, and Russian missiles landing on Ukrainian cities far from the fighting line.

A cluster of blasts

On 18 August 2022, explosions were reported at military facilities in Crimea and Belgorod Oblast, and were believed to have been launched by Ukraine. An explosion and large fire hit an arms depot near Timonovo. Blasts were also reported at Stary Oskol Airport and in Russian-occupied Nova Kakhovka in Kherson Oblast.

In eastern Crimea, residents of Kerch and nearby villages reported multiple explosions. Crimean officials said air defences had been activated near the city but that there was no danger to the town or the Crimean Bridge. At Sevastopol International Airport, explosions were reported, and the governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said Russian air defences had shot down a Ukrainian Air Force drone near the airport.

What came before

The pattern had begun two days earlier. On 16 August 2022, an explosion at an ammunition depot in northern Crimea forced civilians to be evacuated, and observers suggested Ukrainian forces may have hit it. Reports on 17 August 2022 described Russia launching missile strikes on Odesa and Mykolaiv in response to the sabotage bombings of military facilities in Crimea.

That same day, a Russian missile struck a dormitory in Kharkiv, killing seven civilians and injuring 16 others, according to the city's mayor and top military administrator. Kharkiv, about 30 kilometres from the Russian border, had been a major early target of the invasion and was the focus of a battle that ran from February to May 2022.

What the sequence suggests

Taken together, the reports describe an exchange. Blasts at military sites in Crimea and Russia were followed by Russian strikes on Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kharkiv, while more explosions were reported in Crimea and Belgorod Oblast the next day. Civilians were affected on both sides of that exchange: Crimean residents were evacuated or heard blasts, and civilians in Kharkiv were killed.

The official Russian line in Kerch was reassurance about the Crimean Bridge, while in Sevastopol the governor acknowledged a Ukrainian drone and said it had been shot down. Whether the blasts were Ukrainian operations was, on 18 August 2022, a matter of belief rather than confirmed attribution: they were described as believed to have been launched by Ukraine.

For readers trying to understand the war's course, the significance of that day lies in the spread of incidents: Crimea, Belgorod Oblast, Kherson Oblast and Ukrainian cities in the south and north-east all appeared in the reports within a short window.