Was 3 October 2022 a turning point?

What did the battlefield look like on 3 October 2022, and what did it say about Moscow's position? Within days of Russia declaring the annexation of Ukrainian territory, its forces were under pressure on several fronts, and its military leadership was reacting.

On 3 October 2022, Ukrainian forces advanced more than 20 kilometres along the Dnieper towards Dudchany in Kherson Oblast, in what was described as a "major breakthrough". The push was part of the Ukrainian southern counteroffensive.

The same day, the Russian Defence Ministry dismissed Colonel General Alexander Zhuravlyov in response to a series of military defeats in Ukraine. Major General Roman Berdnikov replaced him as commander of the Western Military District.

The days before

The advance towards Dudchany followed other gains. On 2 October, Ukrainian troops recaptured Khreshchenivka as they continued southwards through the Russian-occupied part of Kherson Oblast. Russia's 49th Combined Arms Army was reportedly withdrawing some troops from the frontline to Beryslav.

On 1 October, Ukrainian troops retook Lyman after weeks of fighting, one day after the annexation of the Donetsk People's Republic to Russia. By 30 September, Ukrainian forces had closed in on the city after crossing the Siverskyi Donets River, and they cut off the only road still supplying the occupying forces from the north. The Russian Ministry of Defence said it had withdrawn its troops from Lyman because of "a threat of encirclement".

Moscow's response

The political reaction in Russia ran in two directions. On 1 October, after the defeat at Lyman, the head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, called on the Russian government to introduce martial law and to use low-yield nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

On 2 October, the Constitutional Court of Russia said the annexation was constitutional. It cited the need to correct what it called the arbitrary decisions of the Soviet government and to prevent the claimed widespread repression of Russians in Ukraine. It was later also clarified that the borders of the annexed regions were intended to be those at the time of annexation.

The human cost

Also on 1 October, a civilian convoy of seven cars that had been attacked by Russian forces was discovered in Kupiansk Raion in Kharkiv Oblast. According to the local governor, Oleh Synyehubov, 24 people were killed, including a pregnant woman and 13 children.

What 3 October showed

Taken together, the events of 1 to 3 October 2022 set a legal declaration of annexation against Ukrainian gains in the east and south. Russia's courts affirmed the annexation while its army gave up Lyman, retreated from positions in Kherson Oblast and dismissed a senior commander for failures in the field. Whether those gains would hold was not yet known, but the direction of movement on 3 October was plain: Ukrainian forces were advancing, and Russian command was changing hands in response.