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Snake Island withdrawal and rival accounts of 30 June 2022
Summary
A look back at the day Russia left a Black Sea outpost, and the competing explanations that followed.
What did Russia's departure from Snake Island actually mean? On 30 June 2022, Moscow announced that it had withdrawn from the small Black Sea island as a "gesture of goodwill", ending an occupation that had begun in February. Ukraine told a different story: it said its forces had driven the Russians out after a massive artillery assault.
Two accounts of one withdrawal
The island had been attacked by the Russian Navy on 24 February 2022, the first day of the invasion, and was captured along with its garrison. That began a military occupation of 126 days. The island is small but strategically located in the Black Sea, which is why its status drew attention.
The two explanations could not be reconciled. Russia described a voluntary step. Ukraine described a military defeat for the occupiers. The island was, in either version, no longer under Russian occupation by the end of the day.
Pressure elsewhere in the south
The days around the withdrawal also showed Russia consolidating its grip in occupied territory. On 29 June 2022, the Russian-appointed military-civilian authorities in Kherson announced a referendum on whether the region should join Russia. The same day, Ihor Kolykhaiev, the de jure mayor of Kherson, was detained by Russian security forces after Russian-installed officials said he had refused to follow orders.
The contrast was notable: a retreat from a small island offshore, alongside moves to formalise control over a region on the mainland.
A signal from Madrid
At the NATO summit in Madrid on 29 June 2022, US President Joe Biden announced that a new permanent US military base would be established in Poland. It would house the 5th Army's Headquarters, which had had a forward command post in Poznań since the previous year. Poland's government had long requested such a base.
Taken together, the events of those two days gave a picture of a war being fought on several fronts: over a Black Sea outpost, over the political status of an occupied region, and over the military posture of NATO's eastern members. On 30 June 2022 itself, the clearest development was the island, and the argument over why Russia left it.
