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What did 4 June 2022 reveal about war's horizon?
Summary
On the 101st day of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine's defence minister offered a hopeful forecast as Western weapons pledges and fighting in the east and south continued.
How long would the war last? On 4 June 2022, Ukraine's Minister of Defence, Oleksii Reznikov, gave his answer at the GLOBSEC-2022 forum in Bratislava, Slovakia. He said it was hard to predict when the war would end, but his optimistic forecast was that it could end by the end of the year.
A forecast set against a grim tally
The remark came a day after the war passed its 100th day. In a video address marking the milestone on 3 June, the President, Volodymyr Zelensky, appeared with the Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, and his adviser Mykhailo Podolyak. Zelensky said Ukraine had been defending its country for 100 days and that victory would be Ukraine's. The address was described as sad but resolute.
The human cost was set out the same day by the International Committee of the Red Cross. It said the scale of destruction after only 100 days was beyond comprehension. Its Director-General, Robert Mardini, noted that a third of the population had been forced to flee in that short period.
Weapons pledges behind the optimism
Reznikov's cautious optimism came as partners announced further support. On 2 June, the United Kingdom said it would send M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems to Ukraine. Sweden said it would provide additional military aid, including anti-ship missiles, anti-tank guided missiles and rifles for the Ukrainian Ground Forces. Both announcements were framed as support against the Russian invasion.
Fighting on several fronts
The battlefield picture was mixed. On 2 June, Ukrainian officials said the Armed Forces of Ukraine had recaptured 20 settlements in Kherson Oblast, part of the fighting in the south. In the east, the Battle of Donbas continued, with Sievierodonetsk a focus. On 3 June, two Reuters journalists were injured and their driver was killed when their vehicle was attacked on the way to Sievierodonetsk. The perpetrators were not identified.
What the day showed
Taken together, the reports from 2 to 4 June 2022 showed a government projecting confidence about the war's duration while civilians bore heavy losses and allies added to the arsenal available to Ukrainian forces. Reznikov's forecast was explicitly a hope rather than a prediction, and he said as much himself.
