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What did Russia's October 2022 moves signal?
Summary
A retrospective on the security picture around 25 October 2022, as strikes on energy sites, martial law in annexed areas and evacuations in Kherson Oblast unfolded.
What was the security picture in Ukraine on 25 October 2022? In the days before that date, several developments pointed in the same direction: pressure on civilian infrastructure, a tighter legal regime in Russian-held territory and shifting activity on the southern front.
Strikes on energy infrastructure
On 20 October 2022, a Russian missile struck a major thermal power station in Burshtyn, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Governor Svitlana Onyshchuk described the damage as "quite serious". By 22 October 2022, power outages were reported across Ukraine, and citizens were advised to store water as Russian airstrikes continued to damage critical infrastructure and energy facilities.
Martial law in annexed territories
On 19 October 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced martial law in the recently annexed territories of Ukraine, starting at midnight on Thursday. An "intermediate level of preparedness" was also introduced in Crimea and in the Russian federal subjects bordering Ukraine. As later described, the measure took effect on 20 October 2022, a month after the announcement of mobilisation, and was set out in two presidential decrees: one on martial law in the territories of the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, and one on measures in Russian regions.
Kherson and the southern counteroffensive
Also on 19 October 2022, Russian forces began evacuating thousands of civilians from occupied areas of Kherson Oblast, according to the Russian-installed governor, Volodymyr Saldo. Ukraine called on residents to ignore the Russian orders to leave their towns and villages. The exchange took place against the backdrop of the Ukrainian southern counteroffensive.
Foreign involvement
On 20 October 2022, the United States reported that Iranian troops were in Crimea, helping the Russian military use Iranian drones. Separately, on 19 October 2022, Belarus said it could not pay off its debt because of international sanctions imposed over its role in the war.
Support and solidarity
On 19 October 2022, the European Parliament awarded the Sakharov Prize to the people of Ukraine.
What it added up to
By 25 October 2022, the picture combined attacks on the energy system that left outages across the country, a formal wartime regime in annexed areas, contested evacuations in Kherson Oblast and reports of outside military help for Russia's drone use. Each strand was visible in the days leading up to that date.
