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What did 21 October 2022 reveal about the war?
Summary
A look back at the security picture on 21 October 2022, after a week of martial law decrees, evacuation orders and strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
What was the security picture in Ukraine and the region on 21 October 2022? In the days leading up to that date, several developments pointed in the same direction: Russia tightening control over the territory it claimed, Moscow drawing on outside help for its drone campaign, and Ukrainian infrastructure coming under missile fire.
Martial law in annexed territories
On 19 October 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced martial law in the recently annexed territories of Ukraine, taking effect at midnight on Thursday, 20 October. He also introduced an "intermediate level of preparedness" in Crimea and in the Russian federal subjects bordering Ukraine. The measures were set out in two decrees, one on martial law in the territories of the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, and another on measures in Russian regions linked to an earlier decree dated 19 October 2022. The move came a month after the announcement of mobilisation.
Kherson: evacuations and a Ukrainian warning
Also on 19 October 2022, Russian forces began evacuating thousands of civilians from occupied parts of Kherson Oblast, according to the Russian-installed governor, Volodymyr Saldo. This took place during the Ukrainian southern counteroffensive. Ukraine urged residents to ignore the Russian orders to leave their towns and villages.
Drones and the energy grid
On 20 October 2022, the United States reported that Iranian troops were in Crimea, helping the Russian military use Iranian drones. The same day, a Russian missile struck a major thermal power station in Burshtyn, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. Governor Svitlana Onyshchuk said it caused "quite serious damage". The strike showed that the war's reach extended to western Ukraine.
The wider region
Belarus said on 19 October 2022 that it could not pay off its debt because of international sanctions imposed over its role in the war. The same day, the European Parliament awarded the Sakharov Prize to "the people of Ukraine".
Why it matters in retrospect
Taken together, these events show a war being fought on several levels at once: legal and administrative measures in occupied and border areas, contested movements of civilians around Kherson, outside military assistance to Russia reported by Washington, and attacks on energy facilities. Sanctions were also being felt in Belarus, and Ukraine received recognition from European lawmakers. By 21 October 2022, each of these lines was already visible.
