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What the Przewodów missile blast revealed
Summary
An analysis of how a deadly explosion in eastern Poland, on a day of heavy Russian strikes, was first read as an attack and then attributed to Ukrainian air defence.
What happened in the Polish village of Przewodów on 15 November 2022, and why did it matter so much? A missile strike killed two people there, in eastern Poland near the border with Ukraine, on a day when Russian missiles also hit several Ukrainian cities.
A day of heavy strikes
Russian missiles struck cities across Ukraine on 15 November 2022, Kyiv among them, causing critical damage to energy facilities. The Przewodów explosion came during those attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
The first reading
The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the missile was Russian-made and summoned the Russian ambassador to provide an explanation. Ukraine initially accused Russia of striking Poland. The origin of a weapon and the identity of the party that fired it are different questions, and the gap between them defined the day.
The US assessment
U.S. officials told the Associated Press that preliminary findings suggested Ukrainian forces had fired the missile at an incoming Russian missile. President Joe Biden then said the blast was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile. That pointed to a defensive launch gone astray, not a deliberate attack on Poland.
The point carried weight because, as the episode was later described, it was the first time a foreign missile had hit NATO territory during the invasion. The Polish Prosecutor's Office confirmed in September 2023 that an out-of-control Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile had caused the explosion.
What it showed
The episode showed how quickly a strike near the border can raise questions about NATO territory, and how much depends on careful attribution. Russian bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure produced the circumstances in which the missile was fired, and the deaths in Przewodów were a spillover from that bombardment.
A separate announcement the day before also belongs to this regional picture. On 14 November 2022, the United Kingdom said it would withdraw its troops from Mali, citing political instability and the controversial relationship between the military junta led by Assimi Goïta and Russia's Wagner Group.
