What 27 September 2022 revealed about Russia's neighbours

What did Russia's neighbours make of the people leaving it? On 27 September 2022, the answer began to take shape in Riga and Astana, as the effects of Russia's mobilisation spread beyond its borders.

Latvia announced a state of emergency over the influx of Russian citizens fleeing mobilisation. Special measures were introduced in the country's border regions and at all ports of entry. On the same day, Kazakhstan said that around 98,000 Russian civilians had entered the country by land and air since Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered a military mobilisation.

Pressure inside Russia

The departures were matched by unrest at home. On 25 September, mass protests against mobilisation took place in Dagestan, with protesters clashing with police. The number of people detained in anti-war protests across Russia rose to more than 2,000 that day. On 26 September, spontaneous protests continued in Dagestan and Kabardino-Balkaria.

Also on 26 September, the Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, described as a close ally of Putin, publicly admitted for the first time that he had founded the Wagner Group, a private military company accused of war crimes in places where it had been deployed. He had previously denied any involvement with the organisation.

Annexation on the calendar

The other story of 27 September concerned the occupied territories of Ukraine. Russian-installed officials had staged so-called referendums on annexation. Commentators widely described them as shams, and various countries denounced them. Later, the validity of the results was accepted only by North Korea.

On 27 September, Valentina Matviyenko, Speaker of the Federation Council, the upper chamber of the Russian parliament, said she expected the annexation to be formalised by 4 October.

Signals from elsewhere in the region

Smaller moves pointed to the region's changing economic and security picture. On 25 September, Uzbekistan suspended the use of Russia's card payment system Mir. The stated reason was the need to carry out necessary technical procedures, and the move was said not to be related to sanctions.

On the same day, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine had received NASAMS air defence systems from the United States.

On 27 September itself, leaders from Poland, Norway and Denmark held a ceremony to open the Baltic Pipe, a natural gas pipeline that will carry gas from the Norwegian shelf via Denmark to Poland.

An opinion in hindsight

Taken together, the day's reports show a war whose consequences no longer stayed within Ukraine or Russia. A neighbouring EU state declared an emergency at its border, a Central Asian state counted tens of thousands of arrivals, and protests and detentions continued inside Russia. Meanwhile, Moscow's parliamentary leadership was already speaking of a date for annexation, and three European governments marked a new gas route.

The lesson for readers is that border policy, energy infrastructure and military supply were all part of the same story by late September 2022. The reports of 27 September offer a snapshot of that moment, with decisions in several capitals running in parallel.