What Putin's partial mobilisation signalled in September 2022

What did Russia's announcement of a partial mobilisation mean for the war and for its neighbours? On 21 September 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin made a major address to the nation in which he announced the measure, with students and conscripts set as exceptions. This analysis looks at what the reports of that day and the days before it show.

Legal groundwork

The address did not come out of nowhere. On 20 September 2022, State Duma deputies approved changes to the Criminal Code that introduced the concepts of mobilisation, martial law, wartime and armed conflict, along with punishment for desertion. The legal vocabulary of a mobilised state was therefore in place a day before the announcement.

Referendums in occupied areas

A second track ran in parallel. On 19 September 2022, the so-called public chambers of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics urged their leaders to hold referendums on joining Russia without delay. On 20 September 2022, the so-called People's Council of the Luhansk entity set a referendum on joining Russia as a federal subject for 23–27 September. Soon afterwards, the People's Council of the Donetsk entity announced a vote on the same dates. The timetable was set within a day of the appeals.

Fighting on the ground

The military picture in the Donbas in those days was one of contested ground. On 19 September 2022, Ukrainian Ground Forces recaptured the village of Bilohorivka in Luhansk Oblast as they advanced on Lysychansk. The same day, Luhansk separatist authorities said Ukrainian shelling had killed seven civilians, including three children, in Krasnorichenske. In Donetsk, explosions killed 13 people and injured many others, and the separatist leader Denis Pushilin accused Ukraine of being behind the attacks.

Reactions

Reaction from Russia's neighbours and from NATO came quickly. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called Russia's mobilisation dangerous and reckless, and condemned what he described as Putin's nuclear rhetoric. Lithuania placed its rapid reaction force on high alert in response, according to Defence Minister Arvydas Anušauskas. The Lithuanian step shows that the announcement was read in a neighbouring capital as a matter for immediate military readiness.

Repression in occupied Luhansk

The same day also brought a reminder of how the separatist authorities treated people under their control. A court in the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic sentenced two Ukrainian staffers of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to 13 years in prison for alleged high treason and espionage for the United States.

Reading the day

Taken together, the reports describe a day on which several steps converged: a legal framework for mobilisation, a rapid schedule for referendums in the occupied areas, continued fighting in Luhansk and Donetsk, and sharp reactions abroad. The partial mobilisation, with its stated exemptions for students and conscripts, was the centrepiece. The reactions from NATO and Lithuania showed that the announcement was treated as a significant escalation by Russia's neighbours and by the alliance, and the details of how the measure would be carried out were still to emerge.