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A week of signals before the war's anniversary
Summary
Between 20 and 24 February 2023, Washington, Moscow and Beijing each set out positions on the war in Ukraine.
What did the days around the first anniversary of the full-scale invasion reveal about where the main powers stood? On 25 February 2023, the answer lay in a run of moves made over the preceding five days.
The sequence began on 20 February 2023, when U.S. President Joe Biden made an unannounced visit to Kyiv and met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. As reported at the time, his travel plans had not been made public beforehand. Only two journalists accompanied him, and they had been sworn to secrecy three days earlier.
Moscow answered quickly. On 21 February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin suspended Russia's participation in the New START treaty, the last remaining nuclear arms control pact with the United States. He cited the U.S. goal of defeating Russia in the war in Ukraine.
On 22 February 2023, Putin also revoked a 2012 foreign policy decree that had underpinned Moldova's sovereignty in resolving the political status of the breakaway Transnistria region. The move extended the diplomatic fallout beyond Ukraine's borders to Moldova.
Beijing enters the picture
The fourth signal came on 24 February 2023, the anniversary itself. China unveiled a 12-point position paper on ending the war, ahead of an expected speech on the conflict by President Xi Jinping. Ukraine said it hoped China could urge Russia to withdraw its troops in response to the paper.
What the sequence shows
Taken together, the moves set out three distinct postures. Washington showed its backing for Kyiv through a visit to the Ukrainian capital. Moscow responded by stepping back from the arms control framework and by withdrawing the decree that had underpinned Moldova's sovereignty over the Transnistria question. Beijing, for its part, put forward a peace-oriented document rather than a military or economic commitment.
Kyiv's reaction to the Chinese paper was specific. It framed its hopes around Russian withdrawal, which is the outcome Ukraine sought from any diplomatic effort. That placed the Ukrainian government's expectations of Beijing at the centre of the debate as the anniversary passed.
By 25 February 2023, these developments stood side by side: a U.S. presidential visit, a suspended nuclear treaty, a revoked decree on Moldova and a Chinese position paper. Each had come within a span of five days.
