Russia's command reshuffle and a contested Soledar

What did the preceding days reveal about Russia's war effort? Looking back at 12 January 2023, the picture was of a command structure in flux, a disputed battlefield claim and a strained regional alliance.

A new commander for the war

On 11 January 2023, Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was appointed commander of the Joint Group of Forces taking part in the war with Ukraine. Generals Oleg Salyukov, Alexei Kim and Sergei Surovikin, who had previously held that position, became his deputies. The change placed the head of the General Staff directly in charge of the operational grouping.

Two accounts of Soledar

On 10 January 2023, the UK Defence Ministry said Russian forces controlled most of Soledar in Donetsk Oblast. Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin went further, claiming the city had been taken in its entirety. The gap between the two accounts left the extent of Russian control in dispute. Soledar was the focus of a series of military engagements during the wider Battle of Donbas.

Friction inside Moscow's security bloc

The same day, Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that joint military exercises with the Russian Armed Forces under the Collective Security Treaty Organization would be postponed this year. He cited the organization's refusal to condemn Azerbaijan over the disputes between the two countries. The decision concerned Armenia's relations with Russia and the organization's stance, rather than the fighting in Ukraine.

What the developments suggested

Taken together, the reports pointed to three separate pressures: a leadership shake-up in Russia's military command, competing claims about a town in Donetsk Oblast, and a member state of a Russia-linked security organization putting off planned drills. Each stood on its own, but all were part of the same security picture as of 12 January 2023.