Kyiv's warnings and Paris's pledge before 17 October 2022

What was being signalled around Ukraine in the days before 17 October 2022? Two reports from the preceding week point in different directions: a warning about a possible new threat from the north, and a promise of more air defence from a Western partner.

On 11 October 2022, thousands of Russian troops were reported to be entering Belarus by the trainload. The same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned G7 nations that Russia was planning another offensive against Kyiv, with direct Belarusian involvement. The troop movements came a day after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko accused Ukraine of planning an attack on his country.

On 12 October 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France would send radar and air defence systems to Ukraine in the coming weeks. The announcement formed part of the wider foreign aid to Ukraine during the war.

Taken together, the reports from 11 and 12 October 2022 show the backdrop to 17 October 2022: Kyiv warning allies about a possible northern front, and a European government committing to supply air defence equipment.