Who fired the missile that hit Przewodów?

Who fired the missile that killed two people in eastern Poland? That was the question hanging over 16 November 2022, a day after the blast in the village of Przewodów, and it had a direct bearing on security on NATO's eastern edge.

What was known by 16 November 2022

On 15 November 2022, a missile strike killed two people in Przewodów. The same day, Russian missiles hit several cities across Ukraine, including Kyiv, and caused what was described as "critical" damage to energy facilities.

Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the weapon was a "Russian-made missile" and summoned the Russian ambassador to provide an explanation. Origin of manufacture, however, did not settle who had launched it.

U.S. officials had earlier told the Associated Press that preliminary findings suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile. The U.S. President, Joe Biden, then said the blast was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile.

The later finding

Background compiled later describes the incident as the first time a foreign missile hit NATO territory during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It also records that Ukraine initially accused Russia of striking Poland, while the United States judged the missile likely to have been an air defence missile fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile. In September 2023, the Polish Prosecutor's Office later confirmed that the explosion was caused by an out-of-control Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile.

A parallel security announcement

On 14 November 2022, the United Kingdom announced that it was withdrawing its troops from Mali, citing "political instability" and the controversial relationship between the military junta led by Assimi Goïta and Russia's Wagner Group. The announcement belonged to a separate theatre, but it fell in the same days as the Przewodów incident.

For readers looking back, the sequence on 15 and 16 November 2022 shows how quickly attribution moved from a Russian-made label to the U.S. assessment of a Ukrainian air defence missile fired at a Russian one, during a day of heavy strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.