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Russia's Sevastopol claims and the grain deal
Summary
A look back at the claims Moscow made over 29–30 October 2022, and what they meant for Black Sea shipping and Russia's war effort.
What had changed on the Black Sea by 30 October 2022? The day before, Russia had accused Ukraine of a drone attack on its Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol, Crimea, and had suspended its participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative as a consequence.
The Sevastopol allegation
The Russian-installed Governor of Sevastopol, Mikhail Razvozhayev, said the Russian Navy had repelled the attack, which he called the "most massive" since the invasion began. Russia linked its suspension of the grain arrangement directly to that episode.
A second accusation, aimed at London
On the same day, 29 October, the Russian Defence Ministry went further. It accused the United Kingdom's Royal Navy of blowing up the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea on 26 September. It also said the Navy was behind recent attacks on Russian Navy facilities in Crimea. The British government denied both accusations.
The effect was to place the Crimea incident and the pipeline explosions within a single Russian narrative of Western involvement, while the one concrete step Moscow took, suspending its role in the grain initiative, concerned shipping.
The backdrop
The claims came after two developments on 28 October. Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the end of the mobilisation campaign, saying 300,000 reservists had been reached. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced another $275 million in military aid to Ukraine.
Taken together, the days before 30 October showed Russia stating that its manpower target had been met, the United States adding to Ukraine's military support, and Moscow responding to the Sevastopol incident by pulling back from the grain arrangement and making accusations against the UK that London rejected.
