What did the week of 21 November 2022 reveal?

What did the days leading up to 21 November 2022 show about the war's direction? Taken together, the reports from 15 to 20 November describe a conflict increasingly fought over power supplies, with risks spilling beyond Ukraine's borders.

Strikes on the grid

On 15 November, Russian missiles struck several cities across Ukraine, including Kyiv, causing critical damage to energy facilities. Another wave of cruise missiles followed on 17 November, with strikes reported in Dnipro, Odesa, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. Two people were confirmed killed overnight by a missile in Zaporizhzhia, and critical infrastructure was targeted in Dnipro and Odesa.

By 18 November, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the strikes had left at least 10 million Ukrainians without electricity. He said the death toll from the previous day's attacks had risen to seven, with many more injured.

A missile in Poland

The most alarming moment for Ukraine's neighbours came on 15 November, when a missile strike killed two people in the village of Przewodów in eastern Poland. The Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it was a Russian-made missile and summoned the Russian ambassador for an explanation.

The US president, Joe Biden, said the blast was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile. US officials had earlier told the Associated Press that preliminary findings suggested Ukrainian forces had fired the missile at an incoming Russian missile. On 17 November, Germany offered to deploy Air Force jets to protect Polish airspace in response to the explosion.

The question of who was responsible was settled later. In September 2023, the Polish Prosecutor's Office stated that the explosion was caused by an out-of-control Ukrainian S-300 air defence missile. The background to the incident also records that, at the outset, Ukraine accused Russia of striking Poland, while Washington's early assessment pointed to a Ukrainian air defence missile. It was the first incident of a foreign missile hitting NATO territory during the invasion.

Nuclear safety and a verdict

On 20 November, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Enerhodar had been shelled. Some buildings, systems and equipment were damaged.

Separately, on 17 November a court in the Netherlands sentenced two Russians, Igor Strelkov-Girkin and Sergey Dubinsky, and the Ukrainian pro-Russian separatist Leonid Kharchenko to life imprisonment for shooting down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Donetsk Oblast in 2014. The verdict was delivered in the defendants' absence.

The picture on 21 November

As 21 November 2022 began, the reports pointed to three pressures: a power system under repeated missile attack, a nuclear plant exposed to shelling, and a stray missile that had shown how quickly the war could touch a neighbouring state. The court ruling in the Netherlands was a reminder that accountability for earlier events in the conflict was also moving forward.