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What did Russia's early September 2023 signals show?
Summary
A retrospective on three reported developments in Russia's security and diplomatic activity around 4 September 2023.
What was Moscow signalling in the days leading up to 4 September 2023? Three developments reported between 30 August and 2 September point to military and diplomatic activity reaching beyond Ukraine's borders.
On 2 September, more than 2,000 troops from the CSTO security alliance began military exercises in Belarus. The drills placed a multinational force in a country bordering Ukraine.
On 1 September, Yury Borisov, head of Roscosmos, announced that the RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile had been deployed for combat duty. The announcement was made by Roscosmos's chief, and it concerned a weapon in the category of weapons of mass destruction.
On 30 August, Russia vetoed a United Nations Security Council resolution that would have extended targeted sanctions on Mali for one year and kept in place a team of UN rapporteurs investigating abuses. The veto ended the proposal in the Security Council.
What the pattern shows
Taken together, the three items span a military exercise, a strategic weapons announcement and a diplomatic veto. Each came from a different arena: regional security cooperation, nuclear-capable forces and the UN. As reported at the time, each was a separate event, and no link between them was stated. What they share is that Russia was the central actor in all three within a span of four days.
