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What the Wagner rebellion left behind by 30 June 2023
Summary
A look back at the week that followed the short-lived mutiny in Russia, and at what continued on the Ukrainian front.
What had the Wagner rebellion actually changed by 30 June 2023? In the days after it ended, the picture was one of a deal that closed the crisis, a rebel leader relocated abroad, and a war that carried on regardless.
A short mutiny and a negotiated end
On 24 June 2023, Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, warned that his troops would march on Moscow unless Russian military leadership met him for talks. Russian president Vladimir Putin addressed the nation and said a coup d'état attempt was under way. The same day, the Wagner Group withdrew after Prigozhin, Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko negotiated a deal to end the rebellion.
As described later, the confrontation pitted the Russian Defence Ministry, including the regular army, against Wagner. Large-scale action began on the evening of 23 June and ended on the evening of 24 June after Lukashenko held talks with Prigozhin. The terms were that the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed rebellion would be closed, Wagner would move to field camps, and Prigozhin would go to Belarus.
Prigozhin in Belarus
The Belarus part of the arrangement was confirmed on 27 June 2023. Lukashenko said Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus in accordance with the agreement reached with the Russian government.
The front line kept moving
The rebellion did not pause the war in Ukraine. On 26 June 2023, Ukrainian forces recaptured the uninhabited village of Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast. Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said it was the ninth village retaken in the past month.
Support from abroad continued as well. On 26 June 2023, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a AU$110 million military aid package for Ukraine.
A visitor in Kyiv
On 29 June 2023, former US Vice President Mike Pence made an unexpected visit to Kyiv, one day before the date covered here.
What the sequence showed
Taken together, the events of those days ran on two tracks. In Russia, an armed challenge was settled within roughly a day through talks involving Lukashenko, and its leader was sent to Belarus. In Ukraine, counter-offensive gains in Donetsk Oblast were reported, foreign military aid was announced and a high-profile foreign visitor arrived in the capital. By 30 June 2023, the rebellion was over on the terms agreed on 24 June, and the war continued.
