What did 27 June 2023 show about the war?

What did 27 June 2023 reveal about the state of the war in Ukraine? Three developments, set side by side, offer a picture of violence against civilians, turbulence in Russia and incremental movement on the front.

A strike on civilians in Kramatorsk

On 27 June 2023 a Russian missile struck a restaurant in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast. It killed 13 civilians and injured 61 others, as reported at the time. Later accounts put the time of the strike at 19:29 and said the target was the RIA cafe in the city centre. They said four of the dead were children and put the number of wounded at 59. A second missile hit a private-sector area in the Bilenke district, wounding five residents. The figures differ slightly between the early and later counts, but both describe a strike on a place where ordinary people were gathered.

Prigozhin arrives in Belarus

The same day, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed that Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, had arrived in Belarus under the agreement reached with the Russian government. The arrival closed one chapter of the Wagner rebellion. The rebellion began on the evening of 23 June 2023 and ended on the evening of 24 June, after Lukashenko held talks with Prigozhin. Under the terms described later, the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, Wagner fighters would go to field camps, and Prigozhin would move to Belarus. His confirmed arrival showed that this part of the deal was being carried out.

Gains and aid

On the front, the previous day, 26 June 2023, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian forces had recaptured the uninhabited village of Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast. She described it as the ninth village retaken in the past month. The gains were small in scale but steady in pace. Also on 26 June, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a AU$110 million military aid package for Ukraine, a reminder that outside support was continuing.

Reading the day

The juxtaposition is instructive. Russia's internal crisis over Wagner was being settled through negotiation and relocation, while its missiles continued to hit civilian areas in Donetsk Oblast. Ukraine, meanwhile, was reclaiming villages one by one and receiving new pledges of assistance. None of these events alone settled the course of the war, but together they show a conflict in which the civilian toll, Russia's internal strains and Ukraine's slow advances were all unfolding at once.