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Where Ukraine stood after the Wagner mutiny
Summary
A look back at the developments around 2 July 2023, from Prigozhin's arrival in Belarus to Ukrainian gains in Donetsk Oblast.
What had changed for Ukraine by 2 July 2023, the first weekend after the short-lived Wagner rebellion in Russia? Several threads from the preceding days help answer that.
The rebellion and its settlement
The rebellion by the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, began on the evening of 23 June 2023 and ended the following evening after talks between Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Prigozhin. The settlement provided for the criminal case against Prigozhin for armed rebellion to be closed, for Wagner to move to field camps, and for Prigozhin to go to Belarus. On 27 June, Lukashenko confirmed that Prigozhin had arrived in Belarus in line with the agreement reached with the Russian government.
The front line
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces continued to make small gains. On 26 June, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian troops had recaptured the uninhabited village of Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast. She described it as the ninth village retaken in the past month.
Support from abroad
Foreign backing continued as well. On 26 June, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a AU$110 million military aid package for Ukraine. On 29 June, former US Vice President Mike Pence made an unannounced visit to Kyiv.
Taking stock
By 2 July 2023, then, three developments sat side by side: the Wagner dispute had been settled by a negotiated deal that sent its leader to Belarus, Ukrainian units were reclaiming villages in Donetsk Oblast one by one, and further military aid and a high-profile visitor had arrived in Kyiv.
