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Why Belarus quit the conventional arms treaty
Summary
A retrospective on Minsk's April 2024 move to suspend its role in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
What did it mean when Belarus stepped back from Europe's main conventional arms treaty? On 7 April 2024, the move was two days old: on 5 April 2024, President Alexander Lukashenko announced that Belarus would suspend its participation in the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
What the treaty was
The treaty was negotiated in the last years of the Cold War. It set comprehensive limits on key categories of conventional military equipment in Europe and required the destruction of excess weaponry. It proposed equal limits for two groups of states-parties, NATO and the Warsaw Pact.
A framework already eroded
By April 2024 the treaty had been hollowed out for years. An Adapted CFE was signed in 1999 to reflect the disbanding of the Warsaw Pact, but NATO refused to ratify it, citing Russian failure to comply with the Istanbul Commitments. In 2007 Russia suspended its participation. On 10 March 2015 it announced it was halting its participation completely from the next day. On 7 November 2023, Russia withdrew from the treaty, and the United States and its NATO allies suspended their participation in response.
Minsk's announcement therefore came after the treaty's main powers had already stepped away. Later, almost all other parties also suspended their participation.
