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What did early October 2023 reveal about the war?
Summary
A look back at the security picture in the days before 11 October 2023, from a deadly strike on Hroza to new air defence pledges.
What was the security picture in Ukraine on 11 October 2023? The days before that date brought together a mass-casualty strike, fresh Western military support and a Russian weapons announcement.
The Hroza strike
On 5 October 2023, Ukraine said Russia had attacked a store and cafe in Hroza, in Kharkiv Oblast, with a ballistic missile, killing at least 51 civilians. Later accounts put the toll higher: 59 killed and at least 7 injured, among them a six-year-old boy. The missile was an Iskander, and those gathered were attending a memorial service, according to that later account.
Air defence and ammunition
The same day, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged a second Patriot air defence system to Ukraine. Ukraine's civilian casualties from missile strikes and its need for air defence were thus in view together on 5 October 2023.
Washington also moved on supplies. On 5 October 2023, the United States transferred 1.1 million rounds of Iranian ammunition to Ukraine. The U.S. Navy had seized the rounds in December from a shipment en route to Yemen.
Moscow's announcement
Also on 5 October 2023, Russia announced the successful test of the Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable cruise missile with a potential range of thousands of miles.
Reading the moment
Set side by side, these reports show a war fought on several levels. On the ground in Kharkiv Oblast, civilians were killed by a ballistic missile. In allied capitals, governments pledged more air defence and moved ammunition to Ukraine. In Moscow, officials publicised a long-range nuclear-capable system. By 11 October 2023, these developments from the preceding days framed the security debate around Ukraine.
