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What did late June 2024 mean for security?
Summary
A look back at legal, humanitarian and defence developments in the days leading to 27 June 2024.
What was the security picture on 27 June 2024? In the days just before that date, courts, negotiators and regional leaders each made moves tied to the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Legal pressure on Moscow
On 25 June 2024, the International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for Valery Gerasimov, Russia's Chief of the General Staff, and Sergei Shoigu, a former defence minister. On the same day, the European Court of Human Rights unanimously found Russia guilty of systematic violations of human rights in the Crimean peninsula. Both rulings placed formal legal findings and charges against Russian officials and the state.
A limited humanitarian step
Also on 25 June 2024, Russia and Ukraine each returned 90 prisoners of war in an exchange mediated by the United Arab Emirates. The swap was equal in size on both sides and showed that a channel for such exchanges remained open during the war.
A proposed defence line
On 26 June 2024, the leaders of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia called on the European Union to build a €2.5 billion (US$2.67 billion) defence line between their countries and Russia and Belarus. Their stated aim was to secure the EU from military, economic and migrant-related threats. The request placed the cost and design of border protection on the EU agenda.
Taken together
The three strands operated on different tracks: courts addressing accountability, mediators handling prisoner returns, and eastern EU members pressing for fortified frontiers. As of 27 June 2024, each remained a separate development, and none had yet produced a visible change on the battlefield.
