Three diplomatic tracks on Ukraine, 8–10 July 2024

What did the diplomacy around Russia's invasion of Ukraine look like on 10 July 2024? In the days leading up to that date, three separate tracks ran in parallel, each pointing in a different direction.

Warsaw: a security agreement

On 8 July 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk signed a security agreement in Warsaw. It allows Poland to shoot down Russian missiles inside Ukrainian airspace. Of the three developments, this was the most concrete in operational terms, since it addressed air defence directly.

Moscow and Beijing: visits by leaders

Also on 8 July 2024, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Moscow. It was his first visit to Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion.

The same day, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made an unannounced "peace mission" to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping. It followed an unannounced meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the preceding Friday. Orbán had described the meetings as peace missions. As reported at the time, they were not coordinated with partners. They came as China was deepening diplomatic ties with Russia while the European Union and the United States maintained economic sanctions.

What the contrast shows

Taken together, these events show how different capitals engaged with the war. Poland and Ukraine formalised a military and security arrangement. Modi's trip to Moscow and Orbán's meetings with Putin and Xi were bilateral contacts with Russia or its closest partner. Orbán's trip was also described as a route towards a later stop in the United States, where he planned to attend a summit in Washington and meet Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago.

The tension between these approaches, one tying Ukraine more closely to a neighbour's defence and the others keeping channels open to Moscow and Beijing, defined the diplomatic picture around 10 July 2024.