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Did 31 May 2024 mark a shift in the war?
Summary
A retrospective on a day of prisoner releases, strikes on Kharkiv and Krasnodar Krai, and widening permission to hit targets inside Russia.
Was 31 May 2024 simply another day of strikes, or a day when the shape of the war's rules became visible? Looking back, the reports from that date and the days before it show fighting continuing alongside a notable loosening of limits on how Western-supplied weapons could be used.
Strikes on both sides
On 31 May 2024, Russian missiles hit civilian infrastructure in Kharkiv, killing at least three people and injuring 16 others. The same day, Ukraine launched missile and drone strikes across Krasnodar Krai in Russia. Two people were injured and several oil refineries were damaged.
A prisoner exchange
The day also brought a humanitarian development. Ukraine and Russia announced their first exchange of prisoners of war in nearly four months, with 150 people freed after negotiations mediated by the United Arab Emirates.
The permissions that preceded it
The days before 31 May 2024 saw a run of announcements from Ukraine's partners on where their weapons could be used. On 29 May 2024, the Polish Defence Ministry said it had given Ukraine permission to use Polish-supplied weapons against targets inside Russian territory. France and Germany announced on the same date that their weapons sent to Ukraine, including long-range missiles, were permitted to target bases inside Russia.
On 30 May 2024, Danish Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said Denmark had approved Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian territory with Danish-supplied F-16 jets. The United States also gave Ukraine permission to strike Russian territory near Kharkiv Oblast with US-supplied weapons, though not with long-range missiles. These steps were reported in the context of the 2024 Kharkiv offensive.
Sweden, meanwhile, announced a military aid package of $1.23 billion on 29 May 2024, the largest it had given so far.
What the day shows
Taken together, the reports describe a sequence: partners widened the permitted use of their weapons across several days, and on 31 May 2024 Ukraine struck refineries in Krasnodar Krai while Kharkiv again came under Russian missile fire. The American permission was narrower than some others, since it excluded long-range missiles and applied to the area near Kharkiv Oblast.
The prisoner exchange stood apart from this pattern. It was the first of its kind in nearly four months, and it showed that mediated contacts between the two sides could still produce results even as the strikes continued.
