Home › Opinion › Balloons and pipelines: two regional signals
Balloons and pipelines: two regional signals
Summary
A look back at two developments in Ukraine's neighbourhood reported between 8 and 10 December 2025, one over Lithuanian airspace and one over Russian gas transit.
What did the region's security and energy picture look like on 10 December 2025? Two reported developments from the preceding days offered a snapshot.
On 9 December 2025, Lithuania declared a state of national emergency over security risks from Belarusian weather balloons violating its airspace. The incidents were listed among violations of non-combatant airspace during the Russo-Ukrainian war, and they strained relations between Belarus and Lithuania.
On 8 December 2025, Turkey agreed to guarantee the transit of Russian natural gas to Hungary through the TurkStream pipeline. The step marked a new element in relations between Hungary and Turkey.
Two different pressures
The two items are separate. One concerns a neighbour of Ukraine treating airspace violations as grounds for an emergency. The other concerns a guarantee for Russian gas flowing to an EU member state through a pipeline route via Turkey.
Taken together, they show that in early December 2025 the war's regional effects were being felt in both defence and energy policy, well beyond Ukraine's own borders.
