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Did the Kerch clash shake Trump's Putin plans?
Summary
A look back at 28 November 2018, when the maritime confrontation near Crimea began to affect diplomacy and a Paris tribunal ruling added to the pressure on Moscow.
What did the Kerch Strait clash mean for diplomacy by 28 November 2018? Within three days of the incident on 25 November 2018, it had reached the agenda of a planned meeting between the leaders of the United States and Russia.
On 25 November 2018, the Russian Federal Security Service coast guard fired upon and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels in the Kerch Strait. The ships had tried to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov on their way to the port of Mariupol. Later accounts describe it as the first time Russian forces openly engaged Ukrainian forces during the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Washington's reaction
On 27 November 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump said he might cancel his scheduled meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G20 summit in Buenos Aires later that week. He linked this to Russia's maritime clash with Ukraine. The remark showed that a naval incident in a narrow strait could put a leader-level meeting in doubt.
A separate financial blow
On 26 November 2018, an international tribunal in Paris ruled that Russia must pay Oschadbank 1.3 billion dollars. This was a separate matter from the Kerch incident, and nothing links the two. Still, the ruling and the strait clash arrived within days of each other.
What it meant
By 28 November 2018, the confrontation near Crimea was no longer only a regional security matter. It had become a factor in planning for a major summit, with the possible cancellation of the Trump–Putin meeting as the most visible sign. Whether the meeting would go ahead was still open on that date.
