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What did the year's opening day inherit?
Summary
A retrospective on the security picture as 1 January 2020 began, shaped by a prisoner exchange in Donbass and a Russian missile announcement.
What security picture did Ukraine and its neighbours carry into 1 January 2020? Two late-December events framed it.
On 29 December 2019, the Ukrainian government and separatist rebels in Donbass exchanged prisoners under the "all identified for all identified" formula. The formula had been agreed during peace talks in Paris earlier that month. The swap was a concrete step arising from those talks, and it took place amid the war in Donbass.
Two days earlier, on 27 December 2019, Russia's Ministry of Defence announced the first deployment of the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, calling it a "landmark event". President Vladimir Putin said its top speed exceeded Mach 20 and claimed it put Russia's military ahead of all other nations.
Two tracks, one region
The two developments sat side by side. One was a negotiated, practical exchange between the Ukrainian government and rebels. The other was a Russian announcement about advanced strategic weaponry, presented by Moscow as a leap in military capability.
As 2020 opened, the prisoner exchange showed that the Paris talks had produced a measurable result, while Russia's declaration underlined the weight it placed on its military standing.
