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Opinion

Did the Iran war loosen pressure on Russian oil?

Summary

A look back at two linked decisions on 11 and 12 March 2026, in Washington and Bucharest, and what they showed about energy and security.

What happens to oil sanctions when a separate war pushes energy prices up? On 13 March 2026, that question sat behind two decisions taken in the preceding days.

On 12 March, the United States treasury department issued a temporary licence allowing the delivery and sale of Russian oil and petroleum products that had been loaded onto vessels before that date. The easing was due to run until 11 April, and it came amid rising global energy prices. The measure was tied to the economic impact of the 2026 Iran war.

The move sat uneasily beside the wider sanctions framework. Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union, the G7 nations and Australia had imposed sanctions on Russia. The oil measures began in December 2022 and included an embargo on bringing Russian crude and refined products to the EU and other G7 nations by ship, with a few exceptions. The American licence was narrow: it covered only cargoes already at sea and carried a fixed end date.

The second decision came a day earlier. On 11 March, Romania authorised the United States to use its air bases to refuel aircraft and to deploy monitoring and satellite communications equipment in support of military operations related to the Iran war. The authorisation followed approval by the Romanian parliament and the Supreme Council of National Defence.

Taken together, the two steps showed how the Iran war was reaching into the region around Ukraine, in one case through energy markets and sanctions policy, in the other through basing arrangements. For Kyiv, the immediate issue was the temporary easing of pressure on Russian oil sales, set to lapse on 11 April.

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