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What the Black Sea ceasefire claim left unresolved

Summary

A look back at 26 March 2025, when competing accounts of a Black Sea maritime deal followed a deadly missile strike on Sumy.

What exactly had Russia and Ukraine agreed to in the Black Sea? On 26 March 2025, the question was still open, one day after Washington said both sides had committed to stop military attacks at sea.

On 24 March 2025, the United States and Russia concluded talks centred on a ceasefire in the Black Sea between Kyiv and Moscow. The following day, 25 March, the United States said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to cease all military attacks in the Black Sea to ensure safe passage for commercial shipping.

Moscow's conditions

Russia gave a more qualified account. It said it needed guarantees, and an order from the United States to Ukraine to respect such a deal. In other words, the two descriptions of the arrangement differed on whether it was already in force or depended on further steps.

Sumy strike

The diplomacy unfolded alongside continued violence. On 24 March 2025, a Russian missile attack hit a hospital, a school and a residential area in Sumy, Ukraine. Ninety people were injured, including 17 children.

Sumy is the capital of the oblast of the same name. Russian forces had invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 and captured parts of Sumy Oblast, though they failed to take the city of Sumy itself.

The wider negotiating picture

The Black Sea talks formed part of a longer series of peace negotiations that began after the full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has sought a ceasefire, a full Russian withdrawal, the return of prisoners and kidnapped children, and security guarantees. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, has sought recognition of occupied land as Russian, guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, limits on Ukraine's military, and the lifting of sanctions.

By 26 March 2025, then, the picture was one of a maritime arrangement announced by one party and hedged by another, while missiles continued to strike civilian areas in northern Ukraine.

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