Sanctions and a lawsuit: Europe's pressure on Moscow and Minsk

What had Europe done to press Russia and Belarus in the days before 24 May 2025? Two moves stood out, one on sanctions and one in the courts.

On 20 May 2025, the European Council adopted its 17th sanctions package against Russia. The package added 189 vessels from Russia's shadow fleet to the measures. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, the European Union, the United States and other Western countries had introduced or significantly expanded sanctions on Russia. Russian authorities had worked to soften their impact by sourcing essential goods through globalised supply chains and by turning to trading partners that had ignored Western sanctions, such as China, India, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.

A day earlier, on 19 May 2025, Lithuania filed a lawsuit against Belarus at the International Court of Justice. Vilnius accused Minsk of orchestrating the migrant crisis and of violating international law.

The dispute dates to August 2021, when Belarus began sponsoring an influx of migrants, mostly from the Middle East and North Africa, towards the borders of Lithuania, Poland and Latvia. Belarus denied involvement, but the European Union and independent observers viewed the influx as hybrid warfare. Crossing attempts peaked in October 2021, and at least 20 migrants died the following winter. Attempts fell sharply the next year but never returned to their pre-crisis level. They began rising again in spring 2024, though they remained well below the 2021 peak.