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Kerch Strait fallout: martial law, blockade and diplomacy
Summary
A look back at how the clash at sea shaped Ukrainian politics and Russia's relations with the West in the days before 2 December 2018.
What had the Kerch Strait incident changed in Ukraine's politics by 2 December 2018? Within a week, it had produced martial law, entry bans, appeals to NATO and a cancelled summit meeting.
The incident occurred on 25 November 2018, when Russia's FSB coast guard fired upon and captured three Ukrainian Navy vessels attempting to pass from the Black Sea into the Sea of Azov on their way to Mariupol. It was the first time Russian forces had openly engaged Ukrainian forces during the Russo-Ukrainian War.
Martial law at home
On 26 November, the Verkhovna Rada approved martial law in 10 oblasts for 30 days, starting on 28 November 2018. The decision followed the actions of Russian border guard ships against Ukrainian navy vessels in the strait.
On 30 November, Ukraine went further and barred Russian men aged between 16 and 60 from entering the country. President Petro Poroshenko said the measure was meant to prevent the formation of "private armies" in Ukraine. Russia said it did not plan to retaliate.
A blockade at sea
On 29 November, Infrastructure Minister Volodymyr Omelyan said the ports of Berdiansk and Mariupol were effectively under blockade, since Russia was refusing to let any Ukrainian vessels enter or leave the Sea of Azov. Poroshenko called on NATO to send warships to patrol the sea.
The same day, Belgian F-16s on NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission were reported to have intercepted Russian Flanker jets that had no flight plan, a separate episode in NATO-Russia contacts.
Diplomacy overshadowed
The clash also reached the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. On 27 November, U.S. President Donald Trump said he might cancel his planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin because of the maritime clash. On 29 November, while flying to Argentina, he announced the cancellation on Twitter after conferring with his top National Security advisers, saying it was not a good time because Russia had not returned the ships and sailors to Ukraine. Less than an hour earlier he had said he would probably meet Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said that day that the meeting was still on.
What it meant by 2 December
By 2 December 2018, three strands were visible. Kyiv had moved to a wartime legal footing in part of the country and restricted Russian male entry. It was pressing allies for naval support in the Sea of Azov. And the dispute had cost Moscow a high-level meeting with Washington, with the return of the captured ships and sailors named as the sticking point.
