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What changed in Ukraine's security picture by 9 April 2018?
Summary
A look back at three security developments reported in the days before 9 April 2018, from Donbass to Washington and Kyiv.
What did Ukraine's security picture look like on 9 April 2018? Three reports from the preceding days set the scene: a change in how the war in Donbass would be run, new US sanctions on Russian entities, and an arrest over a 2017 attack in Kyiv.
A new format for Donbass
On 5 April 2018, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held a press conference in Vinnytsia. He announced that the anti-terror operation in Donbass would end in May and be replaced with a military force. The operation had been the name for the Ukrainian government's effort since 2014, when it declared an "Anti-Terrorist Operation" as pro-Russian unrest escalated with the arrival of armed militias. The term "ATO zone" came to describe the parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions under the control of Russian military forces and pro-Russian separatists. The announcement therefore signalled a change in the formal framing of the conflict, from an anti-terror operation to a military force.
Sanctions from Washington
On 6 April 2018, the United States imposed sanctions on twelve Russian-owned companies, a Russian arms exporter and a bank. Washington cited several reasons, including Russian meddling in the 2016 elections and military engagements in Ukraine, Crimea and Syria. The measures were taken under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, a federal law that imposed sanctions on Iran, North Korea and Russia and that works by preventing US companies from doing business with sanctioned entities. President Donald Trump signed it into law on 2 August 2017, though he believed the legislation to be "seriously flawed". The inclusion of Ukraine among the cited grounds placed the conflict alongside other disputes with Moscow in the US justification.
An arrest in Kyiv
On 4 April 2018, Ukrainian authorities announced the arrest of a suspected terrorist in connection with a 2017 attack in Kyiv. The attack killed two people and wounded three, among them MP Ihor Mosiychuk.
Taken together
The three developments touched different levels of security: the legal and military framework for the conflict in the east, the external pressure on Russia, and domestic law enforcement in the capital. In the days before 9 April 2018, Kyiv was preparing a new military structure for Donbass, Washington was adding to its sanctions on Russian entities, and Ukrainian authorities were pursuing a suspect in a deadly attack.
