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What the last days of 2019 revealed
Summary
A prisoner exchange, a court ruling in Kyiv and a Russian weapons announcement marked the final days before 1 January 2020.
What was the state of play in Ukraine and its region on 1 January 2020? The final days of 2019 offered three signals, each pointing in a different direction.
On 29 December 2019, the Ukrainian government and separatist rebels in Donbass exchanged prisoners under the "all identified for all identified" formula. That formula had been agreed during peace talks in Paris earlier in December. The swap was a concrete step that followed those talks.
On 28 December 2019, an appeals court in Kyiv changed the preventive measure for five former Berkut officers from detention to personal obligations. Pavlo Abroskin, Serhiy Zinchenko, Oleksandr Marynchenko, Serhiy Tamtura and Oleh Yanishevskyi had been suspected of killing people during the Revolution of Dignity. The ruling released them from custody while the suspicions against them remained.
On 27 December 2019, Russia's Ministry of Defence announced the first deployment of the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, calling it a landmark event. President Vladimir Putin said its top speed exceeded Mach 20 and that it put Russia's military ahead of all other nations.
Taken together, these reports show a region where diplomacy produced a tangible exchange, a domestic legal process over the events of 2014 moved in a contested direction, and Moscow chose to publicise a new strategic weapon. The prisoner swap showed that the Paris agreements could yield results on the ground. The court decision showed that accountability for violence during the Revolution of Dignity remained unresolved. The Avangard announcement was a statement of military ambition made as the year closed.
