Two signals from the region before 11 May 2026

What did the political picture look like on 11 May 2026? Two developments from the preceding days set the tone: a resignation in Riga and a notable remark from Moscow.

On 10 May, Andris Sprūds resigned as Latvian defence minister after Ukrainian drones violated Latvian airspace during an attack on Russia. The incident was classed among violations of non-combatant airspace during the Russo-Ukrainian war. The resignation showed that the war's spillover reached the domestic politics of a neighbouring state.

On 9 May, Russian president Vladimir Putin said he thought the war might end soon. He spoke at the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, where he had previously vowed victory over Ukraine. The statement therefore combined a vow of victory with a suggestion that an end might be near.

The negotiating backdrop

Putin's remark fell within a long series of peace talks that began after Russia's invasion in February 2022 and followed the Minsk agreements of the War in Donbas. The two sides' stated aims remain far apart. Putin seeks recognition of all occupied land as Russian, the handover of regions Russia claims but does not fully occupy, guarantees that Ukraine will never join NATO, limits on Ukraine's military and the lifting of sanctions. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks a ceasefire, full withdrawal of Russian troops, the return of prisoners and kidnapped Ukrainian children, prosecution of Russian leaders for war crimes, and security guarantees.

Against that gap, the remark of 9 May stood as a statement of expectation, not a change in either side's terms. The Latvian resignation, a day later, was a reminder that the war's effects reached beyond the two combatants.